Scientists fear seabird die-off as El Niño looms: ‘We don’t know how bad this will get’

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/01/el-nino-birds-california

The looming arrival of El Niño has scientists deeply concerned about the future of seabird populations along the California coast. This natural climate pattern, known for disrupting ocean temperatures and weather, could trigger a severe die-off among these birds. Experts warn that the impact may be unprecedented, but the full extent remains uncertain. Understanding how El Niño affects seabirds and what can be done to protect them is crucial for conservation efforts and the health of marine ecosystems.

Seabird resting on rocky shore in California during El Niño conditions

What Is El Niño and How Does It Affect the Ocean?

El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts normal weather patterns and ocean currents, often causing:

• Warmer ocean temperatures along the California coast

• Changes in wind patterns and rainfall

• Reduced upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep ocean

  
  

Upwelling is vital for marine life because it brings nutrients to the surface, supporting plankton growth. Plankton forms the base of the food chain, feeding small fish and other marine creatures that seabirds rely on for food. When upwelling weakens during El Niño, the entire food web can collapse.

Why Are Seabirds at Risk?

Seabirds depend on abundant fish and marine life near the surface to feed themselves and their chicks. During El Niño events, warmer waters push fish away from their usual feeding grounds or reduce their numbers. This scarcity forces seabirds to travel farther and expend more energy searching for food. The consequences include:

• Starvation of adult birds and chicks

• Lower breeding success and fewer fledglings

• Increased mortality rates

  
  

For example, during the strong El Niño of 2015-2016, scientists observed significant seabird die-offs along the California coast. Species like the common murre and Cassin’s auklet suffered major population declines due to starvation and breeding failures.

Signs Scientists Are Watching Now

As the 2026 El Niño develops, researchers are closely monitoring several indicators:

• Ocean temperature anomalies along the West Coast

• Changes in fish populations and distribution

• Breeding success rates of seabird colonies

• Reports of stranded or dead seabirds on beaches

  
  

Early signs of stress in seabird populations can help conservationists respond quickly. However, the unpredictable nature of El Niño means scientists cannot yet predict how severe the impact will be.

What Makes This El Niño Different?

Scientists fear this El Niño could be more intense or prolonged than previous events. Climate change may be amplifying natural cycles, leading to:

• Higher ocean temperatures

• More extreme weather patterns

• Longer-lasting disruptions to marine ecosystems

  
  

These factors could worsen food shortages for seabirds and increase mortality rates beyond past records.

How Seabird Die-Offs Affect the Ecosystem

Seabirds play important roles in coastal ecosystems. They:

• Help control fish and marine invertebrate populations

• Transport nutrients from the ocean to land through their guano

• Serve as indicators of ocean health

  
  

A large die-off disrupts these functions and signals broader problems in the marine environment. Protecting seabirds helps maintain balance in coastal ecosystems that many other species, including humans, depend on.

What Can Be Done to Help Seabirds?

While El Niño is a natural event, humans can take steps to reduce additional pressures on seabirds:

• Protect critical breeding habitats from disturbance and pollution

• Reduce bycatch and fishing pressure on key prey species

• Support marine protected areas that safeguard food sources

• Monitor seabird health and respond to die-offs with rescue and rehabilitation efforts

  
  

Public awareness and support for conservation programs are also vital. Community involvement in beach cleanups and reporting stranded birds can aid scientists and wildlife agencies.

Examples of Conservation Efforts

Several organizations have successfully helped seabird populations recover after past El Niño events. For instance:

• The Farallon Islands National Wildlife Refuge conducts annual seabird surveys and habitat restoration.

• The Audubon Society runs rescue programs for injured or starving seabirds.

• Local fishermen collaborate with scientists to reduce bycatch and protect fish stocks.

  
  

These efforts show that coordinated action can make a difference even during challenging environmental conditions.

What You Can Do as a Coastal Resident or Visitor

If you live near or visit the California coast, you can support seabird conservation by:

• Avoiding disturbing nesting sites and keeping a safe distance from birds

• Reporting dead or injured seabirds to local wildlife authorities

• Participating in citizen science projects that track seabird populations

• Reducing plastic use and properly disposing of trash to prevent marine pollution

  
  

Every small action helps protect these vulnerable species during difficult times.